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25th May 2010

The Effectiveness of High Yield Investment Programs

One of the basic rules of investing is that the higher the risk, the more potential for gain.  A high yield investment program (or HYIP) is one such program. By investing a small amount, a HYIP offers the possibility of high gain, with some risk.

One of the biggest problems with HYIP’s is that they can represent a lot of money placed at risk for a high potential gain. Although they can involve small amounts of money, most investors will invest as much as they figure that they can risk, in order to take advantage of the high potential return. Read: Although they don’t require the huge start-up that other investments do, people do spend as much as they can afford. (Some put in more than they can afford, but this is never recommended.)

Also, some HYIP’s are just well disguised ponzi schemes, and are thus highly illegal. (Investigate any investment opportunity, with special care as to the background of the group or person presenting it. Normally, “too good to be true” would be good advice, but that doesn’t always prove true when it comes to investing.) Some HYIP’s are in fact defined as “ponzi games” in order to skirt legislation that prohibits ponzi schemes as well as uninsured investments; bear that in mind when investigating any HYIP.

However, the problem is that not all investments pay off. With HYIP’s, that’s actually the nature of the investment; although they all promise high gain, the problem is that high risk does mean a strong chance of losing any funds involved. Thus, any potential investor is advised to not invest any more than he can afford to lose.

When debating the effectiveness of a HYIP, be advised that that the nature of the investment itself makes gauging that difficult, and that only the investor himself can make that decision. What makes them effective is that they can create a nice profit for the price entailed, but the risk involved makes arguably effective. There is no real way to cushion the investment, as there would be for most investments; again, the nature of the HYIP denies that.

However, HYIP’s can be effective if the investor limits his activity to just one or two HYIP’s at a time, and invests conservatively otherwise for the time that he is involved in the HYIP’s. That way, the investor has the other investments to fall back on in case the HYIP falls through. This strategy makes the investment more effective, and decreases the risks involved, making them more attractive, and more effective.

HYIP’s can thus be very effective investments, especially if the person can afford to lose any funds invested. If the investor is investing assuming that they will get the money back, and with a high yield, and doesn’t allow for the possibility of loss, however, a HYIP can be a potential issue. Investing in general isn’t for the weak; that definitely applies to HYIP’s.

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25th May 2010

The Dow Jones Industrial Average: Failing the Average Investor

In addition to a well thought out Investment Plan, successful Equity investing requires a feel for what is going on in the real world that we all refer to as “The Market”. To most investors, the DJIA provides all of the information they think they need, and they worship it mindlessly, thinking that this time tattered average has mystical predictive and analytic powers far beyond the scope of any other market number. A cursory review of New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) Issue Breadth figures (93% of the Dow stocks are traded there) clearly shows how the Dow has neither been prescient nor historically accurate with regard to broad market movements for the past eight years. Additionally, this financial icon that investors revere as the ultimate “Blue Chip” Stock Market Indicator has lost its luster, with less than half its members achieving S & P ratings of A or better, and 20% of the issues ranked below Investment Grade.

Is the 120-year-old DJIA impotent? No, it’s certainly helpful for Peak-to-Peak analysis right now, for example, to see if your Large Cap only Equity Portfolio is as high as it was six years ago. But it’s based upon a seriously flawed Buy and Hold investment strategy and universally used as a market barometer, when its original role was as an economic indicator. This is not just semantics. It’s Wall Street’s rendition of “The Emperor’s New Clothes”. Possibly, a weighted average of investor perceived business prospects for thirty major companies is a viable economic indicator, but leading or lagging? Clearly, there is no conceivable way that any existing average/index can measure the progress of the thousands of individual securities (and Mutual Funds masquerading as individual securities) that, in the real investment world, are “The Market”. And is there just “a” Market, when REITs, Index ETFs, Equity CEFs, Income CEFs, and even some Preferreds are all mixed together in such a way that most brokerage firm statements can’t quite distinguish one from the other?  Investors are dealing with multiple markets of different types. Markets that don’t follow the same rules or respond to the same changes in the same ways. The Dow is dead, long live reality.

Feeling statistically naked? Don’t fret Nell, here are a few real market statistics and lists that are easy to understand, easy to put your cursor on, and useful in keeping you up to date on what’s going on in the multiple Markets of today’s Investment World:

1. Issue Breadth is the single most accurate barometer of what’s going on in the markets on a daily basis!  Statistics for each of the Stock Exchanges are tracked daily, documenting how many individual issues have advanced versus how many have declined. Rarely are these important numbers reported, especially if they are painting a picture different from that being jammed down investors’ throats by institutional propaganda. Would you believe, that in 1999 (when the DJIA and other indices) last achieved All Time High (ATH) levels, monthly Issue Breadth on the NYSE was positive only in April, followed by a 12 month paper bloodbath extending through May of 2000.  Since then, Breadth has been positive for six consecutive years. Surprise!

2. Pay close attention to the number of issues hitting New Fifty-Two Week Highs (52Hs) and Lows each day: a) for trend corroboration, and b) to obtain a wealth of important information for daily decision-making and periodic performance understanding. The recent NYSE Bull Market (not a typo) is clearly evidenced by six consecutive years (from 04/00) with more issues hitting new 52Hs than new 52Ls… New Highs nearly tripled New Lows. So much for the standard market tracking tools… not to mention Wall Street manipulation of all the news that’s fit to print for investors. Looking at the daily lists of 52Hs and 52Ls will help you determine: a) which sectors are moving in which directions, b) if interest rate expectations are pointing up or down, c) which individual issues are approaching either your Buy or Sell targets and, d) which direction your portfolio Market Value should be moving.

In recent months, REITs, metals, and energy stocks dominated the hot list while regional banks, utilities, and other interest rate sensitive issues were notsos (sic). These lists always indicate what’s going on now, without any weighting, charting, or hype, making your job almost simplistic. Take your reasonable profits in the issues that have risen to new peaks (Sell Higher), and purchase the quality issues among those that are at 52Ls (Buy Lower). High prices often reflect high speculation with Bazooka potential, while lower priced value stocks often turn out to be bargains. Ishares, foreign Closed End Funds, Mining and Energy bloat today’s 52H List while preferred shares and Utilities occupy the 52Ls… a bit more meaningful than “the Dow is near an All Time High”, and a bit scarier as well.

3. Throughout the trading day, periodic review of three lists called “Market Statistics” will keep you current on individual issue price movements, active issues, sector developments, and more. How you interpret and use this information will eventually affect your bottom line, weather you are a Value Stock Investor or a Small Cap day trader. The Most Active and The Most Declined Lists describe individual and group activity, identify where some more detailed research might be appropriate, and provide potential additions to your Daily Stock Watch List. The Most Active and Most Advanced Lists will identify the hottest individual issues and sectors, identify areas where news stories may be worth reading, and instantly make you aware of profit taking opportunities.

I know you are tempted to shout “Blasphemy” at the top of your lungs, but the DJIA was developed in a pre-internet world (actually, pre-automobile) where the statistics discussed above were unavailable, only the wealthy cared about the stock market, there were no Mutual Funds, and, frankly Scarlet, 95% of the population just didn’t care. Now here’s some blasphemy for you: It is likely that not one person reading this article has an investment portfolio that closely resembles the composition of the DJIA. It is just as likely that nearly everyone reading this article will use the Dow to evaluate portfolio performance. I’ve never understood this phenomenon, and I know that change takes time… but really, the Dow (and the other averages) have had their day, and far too much of your nest egg, for you to ignore this reality any longer.

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25th May 2010

The Condotel Investment Opportunities

The buyers are investors in hotel-condos, a real estate product that combines the flexibility of ownership of a condo in ahotel setting. Popular in the United States, Europe and the Middle East, hotel-condos are just starting to pop up in the Philippines for the first time.
Unlike simple condominiums — which owners can use as they please — hotel-condo units are both investment and residential units that can be used by their owners for up to 30 days per year. The plus is that the owners can invest in real estate while having access to hotel amenities like a spa, gym, room services. The remaining time, the units’ owners return the rooms to a rentable pool run by the hotel. As the units are rented out, the owners receive a split of the income. Alternatively, unit owners can live permanently in their suites and enjoy hotel living 365 days a year.

One such project recently announced, with Pacific Concord Properties Inc — among the first developers to do a hotel-condo in Metro Manila — submitting plans to build a 42-story twin high-rise at Shaw Boulevard, will be called Lancaster Suites – The Atrium.

The Lancaster Atrium is a twin tower development that sits on a common podium with the Lancaster Suites Tower I, which was sold out in less than 18 months and is part of its hotel-condo program.

Beth Collingz, Marketing director for PLC International Marketing Networks, which is exclusively marketing the Lancaster Suites and Lancaster Suites – The Atrium Hotel Condominiums in Metro Manila, said condotels started appearing on the market following PCPI’s launch of the Lancaster Suites back in 2004. We see a marked increase of interest from buyers who live Europe as well as from corporations looking to invest in Philippine real estate. There have been a plethora of residential properties coming on the market, but not many Condo Hotel developments adding that, in the currently hot Philippine real estate market no one felt the need to try out a product that had not been tested in the country before.”

The market for investment properties has shifted in part because of a booming demand for hotel rooms in Metro Manila and a weak dollar internationally. On a broader scale, baby boomers are retiring and buying second and third homes, and interest in real estate as an investment remains strong, when it comes to the market for hotel-condos, the Lancaster project is attracting international customers familiar with this type of investment opportunity. Collingz said The Lancaster Atrium Tower A development will have 450 hotel-condo rooms and suites, a spa, swimming pool, business center, its own mini mall, shops and convenience stores and several restaurants. The project, located atop a common podium with Lancaster Suites Tower I is only one block from the Ortigas Center, Shangri-La Mall, Edsa Plaza Hotel and SM Mega Mall, will continue construction of its superstructure this year having already completed foundation works and put in place 5-levels of basement parking.

While it is possible to secure easy no prequalification, no down payment 6 year no interest payment plans for the Lancaster Atrium suites, Collingz said that most buyers purchase these properties with a small down payment of some 30% to reduce the monthly payments to around $400 a month for a Studio unit or take advantage of a 20% discount for outright cash purchases.

Unsurprisingly the hotel-condo investment trend in the Philippines will accelerate — from Metro Manila to other major metropolitan hubs such as Cebu. PCPI’s Lancaster Cebu development is already sold out with Condotel operations will commence this March.

PCPI has appointed Lancaster Hotels, Land and Properties, Inc (LHLPI) to oversee the operations, sales and marketing, and asset management of the condotel. Guided with a clear goal of maximizing profitability, LHLPI will spearhead the management of the condotel as well as that of the entire condominium building.

Statistics from the Department of Tourism indicate that the number of tourist arrivals to the Philippines has been consistently growing by double digit percentages for the past three years. In 2005, of the 2.3 million tourist arrivals, 1.7 million visited Cebu. In fact, an additional 40,000 hotel rooms are needed to accommodate the expected five million tourist arrivals by 2010.

The Lancaster brand of Condotel developments further validate the increasing demand for hotel rooms which make us more confident that our market and financial projections will be achieved.

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17th May 2010

How To Invest With Success

Whether they’re working in the business world or stay-at-home mothers, many people today are drawn to the risky allure of investments, which can mean either huge rewards or painful losses. While it’s impossible to predict the fluctuations of the market with 100% accuracy, as you build your portfolio, you will learn to accept the losses and keep in mind the successes always waiting around the corner.

No one can control the market, but you can control what you invest in. Research products and know the businesses you’re putting your trust – and, more importantly, your dollars – in. One of the most common errors new investors make is jumping to invest in a hot stock from the previous year. It’s a common pattern for a market high to descend to a market low – right at the time you’re investing. This is not always the case, but it pays to invest in a strong stock rather than a fad that’s in one year and out the next.

It’s also important to know why you’re investing in that particular stock. For instance, if you invest strictly to gain some momentum, when prices fall you’ll know to drop out; otherwise, you’ll sit there wondering whether to wait it out or cut your losses.

Ironically, while it’s impossible to predict the market, investments are all about timing. Two of the most important decisions investors make are when to take profits and when to cut losses. When the market is up, some say it’s best to run a profit – a risky choice that could mean a huge loss or an enormous reward. However, many prefer to take their money while the market is rising, in case a fall is on the way. When the market is down, nearly everyone agrees it’s best to close out before it gets worse to avoid losing any more money, cutting your losses.

Most importantly, only invest what you can afford, and have a good reason for investing. Losses are a real part of investment, which means you can’t afford too many rash decisions, especially when you’re starting out. Don’t let the market determine your bank account unless you’re using it to your advantage, whatever that may be.

The smartest thing a new investor can do is study the market. Before investing in a product, look at its record. Don’t jump into any investments – think them over first. Some good sources of information about investments include The Wall Street Journal Guide to Understanding Money and Investing (3rd Edition) by Kenneth M. Morris and Alan M. Siegel, The Real Life Investing Guide by Kenan Pollack and Eric Heighberger, and The Only Investment Guide You’ll Ever Need by Andrew Tobias.

If you stay well-informed and make careful decisions, the market can be an exciting tool. In the business world, anything can happen, and with the market highs come enormous rewards that are well worth the risks.

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17th May 2010

Financial Freedom

Financial freedom eludes so many people these days who by all logical conclusions and observations should have obtained it. It’s commonly cited as one of the most important and sought after goals in life and yet is rarely attained. This article does not attempt to give you a magic formula for success but I do share with you the choices that made a difference to me and can, if you choose put you well on the path to freedom.

<b>Consumption</b>
You can choose to spend some or all of your money on “consumption” items.  These include food, entertainment, holidays, housing, motor cars, hobbies, and so on.  These are things we need to live on a day-to-day basis.  They also consist of items that service the things we want and so improve lifestyle.</p>

<b>Investment</b>
You can choose to spend some or all of your money on investment items such as revenue producing real estate, shares, interest bearing deposits, businesses that produce revenue, etc.

<b>Consumption or investment</b>
Two important factors need to be understood about the simple concepts of consumption and investment.

The first factor is that spending on “consumption” items results in reducing the total value of your assets (net worth).  Spending on investment items aims to increase your net worth. The second factor is that you have choice.  You can choose between spending on consumption or investment items.

Of course, the best spending patterns are those that aim to attain a balance between spending on consumption and investment items.

<b>Choosing consumption or investment</b>
You now know the difference between consumption and investment spending and that you can choose between the two.

All you need to do is to think before you spend.  Consumption spending can contribute to your lifestyle (driving a new car is fun, even if it was bought on credit and has created a liability of three to five years of payments).  Investment spending provides income and wealth.

<b>Shades of Grey</b>
There is, of course, some spending that is not clearly defined as consumption or investment. Buying your own home is considered by many to be an investment.  It isn’t!  The purchase usually is financed and the repayments are a liability.  The upkeep of a house costs money.  There are rates and taxes payable on it.  You do not get any revenue from it. If you plan to sell it in a few years to make a profit on its increased value, then it may be an investment. However if you have to buy another house to live in are you really any better off?

Investment spending is necessary for building wealth
In order to build wealth, some investment spending is necessary.  The more that goes into investment spending, the bigger and quicker your wealth will grow.  However, if too much goes into investment spending, and not enough into consumption, then lifestyle can become meagre.  But you can choose.

<b>Accumulation over time</b>
Most people are not born rich.  Certainly, some inherit wealth, but consequently may not appreciate it.  A few win wealth in lotteries, but ironically, perhaps because they have not worked for it, or are not used to it, could end up squandering the temporary riches.

Everyone, however, has one thing in common.  The same amount of time goes past for each of us, and at the same rate.  How you employ that time is significant.

Imagine that at the age of 21, you invested $1,000 at an average annual rate of return of 10%, and then by the time you reach 65, you would have accumulated over $70,000 without doing anything else.

If at the age of 21, you invested $1,000 at an average annual rate of return of 10%, and each month invested an additional $100, then by the time you reach 65, you would be a millionaire, without doing anything else.

If you did neither of these things, then the same time would pass, and you would not have accumulated any wealth.

These examples of investment, quite deliberately, use amounts of money that are affordable by most, and if spent on investment, rather than consumption, would probably not be missed.

In terms of investing, time is on your side.
Of course, you may not be 21 any more and you may wish to accumulate wealth at a faster rate.  This is possible by increasing the amount invested, and the annual rate of return.  It is not possible to systematically accumulate significant wealth (millions) without looking at a timeframe of several years (say 5 to 10).  If you are trying to make more money in less time, then your objectives may not be realistic.  Perhaps a lottery ticket, crossed fingers and large amount of luck could produce your desired result, but don’t hold your breath waiting.

<b>The power of compounding</b>
In the above examples there is an additional factor at work.  The entire return was reinvested and participated in earning the same rate of return as the original investment.  None of the investment return was withdrawn and spent on consumption items.

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